Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 35.773146 38.878550 42.308483 46.413846 51.243338 56.808509 63.804119
2025-07-06 30.486279 34.369292 38.948123 44.859576 52.470873 62.223700 76.193120
2025-07-13 28.793771 33.363582 39.029883 46.807788 57.633550 72.947615 98.043413
2025-07-20 26.553218 31.295307 37.364890 46.038901 58.778747 78.160442 113.559681
2025-07-27 25.888124 31.098704 38.013346 48.374910 64.633537 91.836860 149.924781
2025-08-03 24.907356 30.352829 37.781388 49.337207 68.485059 103.316880 190.065758
2025-08-10 23.845691 29.385177 37.107930 49.489631 70.963380 113.030756 235.050774
2025-08-17 22.528017 27.955594 35.626573 48.165855 70.576956 116.783070 267.285207
2025-08-24 21.354831 26.651636 34.222748 46.800803 69.865256 119.612876 300.703557
2025-08-31 21.103280 26.640444 34.737269 48.643542 75.563991 139.762312 450.710492
2025-09-07 20.182118 25.596661 33.588596 47.507048 75.086862 143.921099 532.146760
2025-09-14 19.475464 24.830382 32.818371 46.953061 75.732322 151.616970 679.532076
2025-09-21 18.406305 23.598572 31.432036 45.534049 75.121112 158.234755 931.486253
2025-09-28 17.384410 22.400597 30.046233 44.028835 74.199625 164.364673 1368.508114
2025-10-05 17.129306 22.335145 30.465561 45.915381 81.689500 208.300846 19580.578046
2025-10-12 16.423684 21.527892 29.586890 45.171043 82.482677 226.668817 NaN
2025-10-19 16.290137 21.597199 30.178259 47.431613 92.070436 308.837950 NaN
2025-10-26 15.949287 21.312635 30.130315 48.362099 98.368516 395.284190 NaN
2025-11-02 15.520608 20.859774 29.746109 48.509445 102.368402 485.245778 NaN
2025-11-09 14.926001 20.107186 28.773426 47.229412 101.222095 518.208953 NaN
2025-11-16 14.367638 19.390367 27.824487 45.908620 99.626998 544.766154 NaN
2025-11-23 14.259485 19.406824 28.208110 47.691408 110.009735 884.492753 NaN
2025-11-30 13.792760 18.805523 27.410271 46.592074 108.981673 975.668200 NaN